War between Two States - Mullapperiyar

With the blockades in the various inter state roads in Kumily-Munnar region entering its 9th day, the Mullapperiyar issue has truly escalated into a substantial issue. The sharp rhetoric and unprecedented popular mobilization from Kerala has now been matched by even more vociferous responses from Tamil Nadu, in the process driving the people of two states apart.

The issue of dam is not likely to be resolved any time soon. The bureaucratic lethargy in both the states and the center, political opportunism by random parties and of course the presence of an impotent Central Government and irresponsible Supreme Court ensures that the only thing to do is to wait out the rest of the Dam's lifespan. It is meaningless to conceptualize on what would happen if the dam breaks. In the near future, there is nothing to stop the rupturing of Mullaperiyar Dam from destroying the lives of thousands. No matter how much breath we exhaust in ranting and railing about it, there is no way anything can be changed in the short term, in so far as the dam is concerned. If the dam breaks lakhs of people would die, me included and chapter closed. If the dam does not break people would continue agitating to be heeded or ignored by the political classes and media as per their seasonal whims.

Thus in my opinion there is nothing to be gained by worrying about it now.

However the real and present situation that does merit our attention is another after effect of the escalation of tensions. Closely following the Munnar-Cumbum-Bodi blockade, Vaiko, the infamous chieftain of MDMK has declared that from December 22th, 2011 onwards the Walayar pass, the single greatest trade corridor between Kerala and Tamil Nadu would be blockaded by his people. This threat coupled with the steadily escalating pattern of violence and fear mongering on both sides of the Western Ghats brings a unique situation in the region.

India is no stranger to its states being blockaded. Manipur, was only recently alleviated from a blockade that lasted fully 121 days. That is four months when a state of India ceased to be a state of India. Four months when the Government of India astutely emulated its esteemed Prime Minister in his trade mark silence and spinelessness.

However a blockade between Tamil Nadu and Kerala would be an altogether different thing entirely. For one thing the trade volumes have to be considered. Kerala is a massive importer of food items from its neighboring states and Tamil Nadu's agriculturalists are especially benefactors of this massive market. Tamil rhetoric claims that Kerala ought to be grateful to the food products Tamil Nadu sells it. Frankly when I buy a bottle of Pepsi, I do not thank Pepsi for selling me it. If they dont sell I can always buy Coca Cola or make a stiff drink of my own. That, I fear is an aspect of market economics that the ruffians threatening blockade are forgetting.

In a cash rich market like Kerala there would be no shortage of suppliers. True in the short term, especially in the eve of Christmas, the shortage of vital supplies would be a big hit on festivities in Kerala. The price rise would be a crushing blow on the poor of Kerala who would not be able to outbid for the basic commodities which suddenly become even more scarce. However there is no doubt that agriculturalists in Karnataka and other states would make any delay in hastening to fill this shortfill and capture markets that were once dominated by Tamil sellers because of their proximity advantage. The massive increase in prices of food products has also the potential to encourage a rise in the dying agricultural sector of Kerala. With real estate market in a slump, cultivation of food products could in fact become even more valuable than filling the fields and building apartments.

The Palghat Coimbatore stretch of NH47, one of the busiest roads in the region would find itself strangely deserted once the blockade hits. The execrably maintained NH17 stretches between Kerala and Karnataka would come into greater prominence as also the Sultan Bathery-Gundulpet stretches. The buyers of Kerala would continue to get sellers but the question is what would happen to the sellers of Tamil Nadu? In today's markets where the buyer is always the king, the upcoming blockade would only be a bane for the agricultural industry of Tamil Nadu. With the usual bumper sales season of Christmas in Kerala denied to them, what would the food producers of Tamil Nadu do? The flare up of emotions of Mullaperiyar coupled with the loss of assured supplies due to blockade would also ensure that dealers in Kerala would lose trust in the Tamil Nadu suppliers in the long term.

On the political front, it is to be seen what successes the parties in Tamil Nadu could hope to accrue by denying its entrepreneurs the markets in Kerala. Also it is to be seen how much the general spineless of the electorate in Kerala would bear the stringencies of a blockade especially during the festive season of Christmas. Already the people of Kerala are ruing the absense of viable regional parties from Kerala, parties who represent the voice of the people of Kerala rather than kowtowing to the diktats of Politburos and High Commands in North. The way the regional parties of Tamil Nadu hold power over even the national parties in this Coalition era is a definite cause of jealousy for the more politically aware youth of Kerala. The Marxists who renewed the Mullaperiyar Agreement in 1970 and the Congress who are dithering in their duties to their voters for fear of punishment from the "Madam" deserve to be beaten into obscurity. With BJP continuing to be a non entity, this issue is bound to lead to truly interesting times indeed.

War between two neighbors is truly unfortunate, especially one between two states as closely woven culturally and spiritually as Kerala and Tamil Nadu. However in the absence of a political and governance system that bestows any value for human life, perhaps the turbulent days ahead of us could in fact lead to a better system.